US Stock Futures Fall on Fed Outlook; Dollar Rises: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — US equity futures and European stocks slumped as an unexpectedly strong US jobs report raised the prospect of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Concern over US-China geopolitical tensions also weighed on sentiment.
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The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped more than 1% after closing Friday in a bull market, with the technology and real estate sectors leading the retreat. On Wall Street, contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were lower by at least 0.9%.
The dollar climbed for a third day after a gauge of its strength rose more than 1% Friday, when figures showed a surge in payrolls and unemployment at a 53-year low. This points to persistent US inflation and bolsters the case for more rate increases.
“The state of the employment sector is a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process, and thus the number has certainly provided investors with another factor to consider when predicting the course of the Fed’s movements over the next couple of months,” economists at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg wrote in a note.
US-listed Chinese stocks were on track to fall for a third session, after Washington’s move to shoot down an alleged surveillance balloon from China spurred new tensions between the two countries. The US sent divers to salvage what they believe is spy equipment from the Chinese balloon off the coast of South Carolina, with pressure mounting on President Joe to hit back at Beijing with new export control measures.
In Japan, stocks climbed and the yen weakened after the Nikkei reported that the government had approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya about succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the central bank. While the Japanese government refuted the report, investors assume a greater likelihood of the current ultra-easy monetary policy enduring if one of its architects succeeds Kuroda.
Meanwhile, the robust US labor data on Friday “had serious implications for Fed policy — simply put, it confirms our long-standing belief that the Fed will have to go higher for longer than what optimistic market scenarios had priced in,” Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, wrote in a note. “We still have a ways to go to get to peak Fed Funds rate, and yet folks are still looking for second-half rate cuts in what would be an extremely quick turnaround.”
The employment numbers spurred yields on Treasuries to extend climbs for a second day. Traders will monitor this week’s $96 billion of Treasury note and bond auctions, which will be a test for the market, according to Daniel Mulholland, head of rates at Crews & Associates.
On the outlook for US stocks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said the rally over the past month may be as good as it gets this year. The S&P 500 now accurately reflects signs of better-than-expected economic growth and a drop in bond yields, strategists led by David J. Kostin wrote in a note. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson broadly shares that view, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said international markets continue to screen as “much more interesting” than the US.
In other New York premarket trading moves, Newmont Corp. fell after it offered to buy Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd. in a $17 billion deal that would strengthen the US company’s position in copper and gold. Spotify Technology SA gained after analyst ratings upgrades for the music streaming giant.
Elsewhere, oil climbed after Turkey halted flows to the Ceyhan export terminal on the Mediterranean coast as a precaution because of the devastating earthquakes in the region Monday. Gold rose.
Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by some of the most powerful quakes to strike the Middle East in decades, killing hundreds of people. Turkey’s lira held steady against the dollar, while the country’s benchmark stock index dropped, with the Istanbul exchange suspending short selling as part of measures to limit wider market fallout.
Adani Group assets are facing continued volatility. Billionaire Gautam Adani and his family have prepaid $1.11 billion worth of borrowings backed by shares as the conglomerate seeks to allay investor fears and stem a stock rout that’s in its third week.
Key events this week:
Earnings this week are scheduled to include: AP Moller-Maersk, Apollo Global Management, AstraZeneca, BNP Paribas, BP, CME Group, Duke Energy, KKR, Nintendo, PepsiCo, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, Siemens, SoftBank Group, Toyota Motor, Uber Technologies, Unilever, Walt Disney
Eurozone retail sales, Monday
Australia rate decision, Tuesday
US trade, Tuesday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington, Tuesday
US President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address, Tuesday
India rate decision, Wednesday
US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
New York Fed’s John Williams at event in New York
Sweden rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in EU leaders summit, Thursday
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before Treasury Committee, Thursday
China PPI, CPI, BoP, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed’s Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.9% as of 6:09 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.1%
The MSCI World index fell 0.7%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0765
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2031
The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 132.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $22,800.25
Ether rose 0.3% to $1,626.66
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 3.61%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.28%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 14 basis points to 3.20%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $73.79 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,884.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, Michael G. Wilson and Tassia Sipahutar.
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